Cody and I wonder whether Joel Embiid is the best player to never make an All-NBA first team. Neither of us can remember our 75th Anniversary ballot.
2022-01-23 21:51:37 +0000 UTC View PostNew post following up the discussion of shooting luck for defenses like the Nets: https://backpicks.com/2022/01/15/do-superstars-like-harden-and-durant-influence-opponent-shooting-luck/
2022-01-15 20:14:38 +0000 UTC View Post
Early look at an extended Garland profile that's coming later this week on YouTube.
2022-01-04 02:06:34 +0000 UTC View PostSorry I forgot to post an announcement for this Q&A that we snuck in before the holidays. We also didn't get to a question about forecasting that we'll save for next time. Lots of really interesting conversation around Klay Thompson, portability, feel, the ideal body type for basketball, interactions between the Dirk-Nash Mavericks and more....
2021-12-19 16:29:37 +0000 UTC View PostLatest post on Backpicks here: https://backpicks.com/2021/12/15/wowy-stats-update-the-top-teams-in-the-league/
2021-12-16 00:19:26 +0000 UTC View Post
Some director's cut stuff that didn't make the main video on GP2, switching concepts and help positioning.
2021-12-13 14:01:03 +0000 UTC View Post
From their November 30th meeting in Phoenix, a few extras that didn't make the main YouTube video.
I also forgot to mention on the last play that it's pretty clear the Suns scouted that action closely (as well as many others) and had likely discussed that exact look for the weakside defenders in preparation for the game.
2021-12-02 13:40:01 +0000 UTC View PostSome interesting questions this time about defense, development and aesthetics.
2021-11-23 16:42:17 +0000 UTC View Post
I'm experimenting with a segment on "the best plays of the week" or "plays that caught my attention." It would be a handful of plays like this one, and since I usually have a bunch of these at the end of a week/month that doesn't always make videos, it wouldn't take time away from larger profiles or projects. (5 Thoughts was originally intended ...
2021-11-16 23:45:01 +0000 UTC View PostFollow up on this week's video and podcast with some 2022 WOWY stats I'm eyeing: https://backpicks.com/2021/11/13/teammate-effects-early-season-wowy-stats/
2021-11-13 22:56:01 +0000 UTC View PostYou asked for it, you got it. The teams I'm watching most in the 2022 season so far, where I also panic when realizing I've never said Ayo Dosunmu's name out loud before, then call Stacey King "Neil Funk" (who retired 2 years ago) because of said panic.
2021-11-03 22:56:09 +0000 UTC View PostQuick post on rim attempts and FTA as an indicator of decline, and what that means for Harden, Durant and even LeBron this year: https://backpicks.com/2021/10/28/getting-to-the-nets-rim-pressure-and-perimeter-player...
2021-10-28 20:40:21 +0000 UTC View PostI could never really find a list I liked in this exercise -- the first 50 or 55 were fairly easy, the next 10 or so feel manageable, but then finding a final 75 that felt "good" was impossible. Someone was either too flawed, too injured, didn't play long enough or lacked a super high peak despite being a really well-rounded player. Here's the li...
2021-10-23 01:06:04 +0000 UTC View PostDave asks me who my favorite players were, and naturally that leads to baseball batting stances and Jaren Jackson's 3-point rate.
2021-10-17 21:45:47 +0000 UTC View PostOne thought hit me after recording: Do we psychological give guys more credit for higher volume and lower efficiency because they take so many more difficult attempts?
eg 25/75 on on 65% TS vs. 30/58%
The second player takes 25.9 scoring attempts, the first player only 19.3. I imagine a lot of those differences are a willingness to t...
2021-10-14 16:15:02 +0000 UTC View PostIs Michael Jordan an outlier among GOAT candidates? What are future directions of analytics? Does portability change based on the era? Who had the best single series and more...
2021-10-10 20:33:52 +0000 UTC View Post1. Some of you have asked about weird values still showing up in the historical player tables -- these will slowly be updated as they're uncovered. For instance, some of the 2020 and 2021 players in the latest update were off because of an issue with player heights. (eg Luka Doncic's BPM was +5.5 this year, not +2.1.) The 2021 players page...
2021-10-08 16:27:08 +0000 UTC View PostNew compendium to the historical stats shared on the site, looking at a ton of leaderboards and comparing data by type, season and era: https://backpicks.com/2021/09/28/the-best-of-the-backpicks-box/
2021-09-28 16:27:08 +0000 UTC View PostFrom the latest podcast, here's the list of NBA at 75 predictions by draft class. Looking at 5-year periods since the beginning of the league, the breakdown is as follows:
Thanks to BBall-Index's Krishna Narsu (creator of the LEBRON metric), I've discovered an error generated recently for 2020 and 2021 values. This is great news for any subscribers who happen to be huge Nikola Jokic fans, as his correct BPM is now +8.6 for the 2021 season, which ranks 4th all-time among regular season peaks.
I will upd...
2021-09-19 23:58:22 +0000 UTC View PostFor insiders or above, the historical player seasons are now updated through 2021. As mentioned in the last post, the old database has been split into a 1-year and 3-year table:
1-year (since 1955): https://backpicks.com/metrics/player-seasons/
3-ye...
2021-08-30 18:51:18 +0000 UTC View PostFor insiders, the "player seasons" historical page now includes the 2020 and 2021 seasons, along with some additional metrics (ie single-year playoff data). All players are back on a single page. https://backpicks.com/metrics/player-seasons/
3-year data w...
2021-08-24 20:16:55 +0000 UTC View PostMany of you have asked questions about portability and scalability -- this answers just about all them. https://backpicks.com/2021/06/23/scalability-curves-and-greatest-peaks-corp/
2021-08-04 19:37:31 +0000 UTC View PostKyle and I only hit the top-10 grades, but using CBSSports, Forbes, USA Today and Bleacher-Report, here's a full list of relevant draft grades 5 years later. Note the Pascal Siakam grades:
I look back at some of the additional key takeaways from the playoff plus-minus series. AKA The "please use the box score wisely" series.
2021-07-24 20:42:07 +0000 UTC View PostA ton of contextualization in the final installment in this series. I also realized I forgot to create a Patreon post for Part IV (supporting casts and ensembles), so here you go:
Part IV: https://backpicks.com/2021/0...
2021-07-24 14:55:45 +0000 UTC View PostNew post on the Finals, with a box score just based on the series: https://backpicks.com/2021/07/22/backpicks-box-score-for-the-2021-nba-finals/
2021-07-22 15:58:36 +0000 UTC View PostAnother fun hour of Q&A. Thanks to everyone who joined and, fittingly, didn't bring up the Finals or any recent work until the end of the show.
2021-07-14 21:33:44 +0000 UTC View PostIn this installment we look at what's happened to the big man and the 16-game player: https://backpicks.com/2021/07/10/playoff-plus-minus-part-iii-changes-in-the-postseason/
2021-07-10 15:47:26 +0000 UTC View Post