There's already a tornado warning in NE Oklahoma (as of 11:45am). By 3pm mixed storm modes appear to be ongoing in the DFW vicinity according to the NAM and HRRR. Storms will congeal into a line and track east. By 12am the tail and of the line appears to be reaching Houston. My current thinking is that none of this is likely to produce anything photogenic. The big question is if discrete cells will form in front of the squall (see red circle). Current guidance suggests this is quite possible after dark, especially around midnight. If that happens, it could be big trouble as that environment is more likely to produce violent tornadoes. Chasing turbo, HP supercells in the dense east TX / LA jungles after dark is an extremely risky call with likely low yield. As of now, I'm going to sit that chase out and hope for some kind of non-jungle lightning event West of Houston (as of now).
Caleb Green
2020-01-23 01:10:46 +0000 UTC