A Robot in Your House, 2026-27. Excl. Interview w/ Sunday Co-founder Tony Zhao on their Breakthrough Method
AIExplained posts
5 Takeaways from Sutskever Breaking Silence + Opus 4.5
Interview Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2
The Information Exclusive: https:...
2025-11-27 18:45:05 +0000 UTC View PostLast 24 Hours: Signs of Introspection in LLMs
Before this paper from Anthropic, out on the 29th, I was a lot more skeptical about LLMs self-reporting their internal state. This is not proof that they can, but partial proof of circuits showing true introspective capability, and more than that, the ability to map a question about it to those circuits.
Plus a big update to 2025-10-30 18:40:22 +0000 UTC
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Exploring the Frontiers of Intelligence … by co-creating LMcouncil.ai
If Simple Bench tests common sense, what is the best test of practical wisdom? For me, it was finding out whether 2025 language models could build the app I have been meaning to make for two years. They can’t, no yet, but they can get very close with a determined human in the loop.
2025-10-15 15:47:00 +0000 UTC
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The 'Blockers to the Singularity' - and the plans to remove them - OpenAI paper
A double-length vid on all the juiciest bits from OpenAI's most recent paper, as well as my framework on the blockers to the singularity. A little bit of Math on why GenAI hallucinates, and why scale is not all you need, plus the crazy Google AlphaSoftware paper.
Claude Can Now End the Chat - but When and Why?
Anthropic say that their biggest model, Opus can now end a chat. But when will it, any why? And is AI model welfare the most overblown or under-discussed topic in AI? The highlights from a 62-page report.
Anthropic Post: https://www.anthro...
METR Doubling-Times Star Joel Becker, on Developer Slowdown With AI & Amodei Automation Prediction
Highlights from an interview with one of the most productive AI researchers around, Joel Becker, who contributed to the famed METR doubling times analysis and the recent eye-opening study on developers being slowed down when using AI. Billions of life-decisions and trillions of investment ride on the exact contours of AI progress, so it was defi...
2025-08-20 12:20:52 +0000 UTC View PostDeep-ish Thoughts on New Gemini DeepThink (plus GPT-5 delay, HLE errors)
Reflections on this moment in AI progress, and why I am positive about the short-to-medium term outlook from here (plus data and examples).
DeepThink Release: https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-2-5-deep-think/
HLE Errors: ...
Our New Age of Artificial, Intelligent Surveillance
No one is talking about how LLMs enable a new era of mass intelligent surveillance. This is not just Grok 4 @ Doge, this is world-wide, as we speak. The second documentary, exclusive, early and ad-free on Patreon.
Gemini (10m tokens): https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.05530...
No. 1 Superforecaster & AI 2027 Author Eli Lifland - On Our Differing Timelines to Superintelligence (New Podcast Series Potentially!)
A debate on whether superintelligence will arise by 2027, with No. 1-ranked RAND Superforecaster & AI 2027 co-author Eli Lifland. Set to be a new series, where we discuss on the podcast how progress is going with respective to our divergent timelines.
AI 2027: https://ai-2027.c...
Claude 4 Simple SOTA Insights + Leaked System Prompt
What is Claude 4 Opus understanding that others' aren't, to hit new records? And what is going on in that leaked system prompt. 10 highlights of the system prompt plus a quick update on Simple. Oh, and it looks like GPT-5 is finally arriving in July...
Full Leaked System prompt: 2025-06-02 13:50:55 +0000 UTC
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A New Twist in the ChatGPT Sycophancy Saga
Remember when, years ago (actually just 3 weeks), ChatGPT started to go crazy? Being a yes-man with an ‘improved personality’ according to Altman? Well turns out there are 3 new theories as to why that happened, and a study that at the beginning of the video I thought turned things on its head. By the end, as you can see, I am not so sure? S...
2025-05-14 16:18:58 +0000 UTC View PostNext-level reasoning: The Good News and Bad News - 2 new papers analysed
Paper 1: Does Reinforcement Learning Really Incentivize Reasoning Capacity in LLMs Beyond the Base Model? https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.13837
Paper 2: Sample, Scrutinize and Scale: Effective Inference-Time Search by Scaling Verification 2025-04-25 15:13:52 +0000 UTC
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Paper: AI Doesn't Say What It Thinks. AI Orgs: It Could Be Your Friend
A fantastic new Anthropic paper shows that LLMs seem hell-bent on obfuscating why they gave an answer, even when it would be easier to be honest.
Download: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12jgVrGZLtVC_8DG...
“OpenAI is Not God”: DeepSeek, Liang Wenfeng and the R1 Phenomenon
The documentary revealing just how much the world got wrong about DeepSeek, what motivates the man behind the company, and what's next.
Incredible Editing: Hassan Iq.
Sources:
Liang Wenfeng 2023 Interview: 2025-04-03 22:27:01 +0000 UTC View Post
'Claude 3.7 Knows it is Being Tested' - New Research, Theory of Mind and Consciousness
New research: 'Claude 3.7 knows it is being tested'. But can it model your mind? And is it having a subjective experience? Plus a guest appearance from the me of ... March 2023.
Download Link: https://drive.google.com/fil...
4 AI Trends Emerging in 2025. Patchy, Epic, Expensive, and Deceptive Models
We are less than 6 months into a paradigm that many say 'will get us there'. Let's uncover 4 underrated trends in AI, to get a sneak peek of the future. Things are about to get pricey, stay patchy, be epic and remain deceptive.
Link to Download:
2025-03-07 17:08:13 +0000 UTC
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Content Creation Insights, Update on Timelines, Race Dynamics: Think Sip-by-Sip Podcast
Some chill behind-the-scenes thoughts on being a content creator, an interesting exchange I had this week, and my updated take-off timelines.
https://www.sesame.com/research/crossing_the_uncanny_valley_of_voice#demo
Mini-documentary Poll
I want everyone to get exceptional value from this Patreon; I have also had a load of comments about sharing specifically the mini-documentaries on the main channel. So I thought I would turn to you guys for expert advice.
So for the occasional mini-docs (normal AI Explained-style vids/pods etc will still be on here only), what ...
The One Machine to Rule Them All - Origin Stories. Mini-Documentary on How the Founding Vision of Each AGI Lab Went Awry
A different style of video! Ft. professional video editor, and focused on the 'impossibility' of AGI labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic etc) keeping to their founding visions...
Feedback appreciated!
Pod 12: Apollo Research Group Interview - Models Try Hard Not to Undergo 'Unlearning', the media, and much more ... - Let's Think Sip-by-Sip
My Dec Apollo video: https://www.patreon.com/posts/media-over-o1s-117630338
Updated Apollo Paper:
2025-01-22 18:35:36 +0000 UTC
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'Takeoff Speeds' - my unreleased, now-topical explainer
This week, mid-Jan 2025, Sam Altman announced that he now thought we were in the fast-takeoff timeline. But what did he think before, and what are takeoff speeds anyway? My deep dive (and last unreleased video of the 8-part series).
Download:
2025-01-20 11:54:36 +0000 UTC
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Veo 2 vs Sora ... then Veo o3?
Let's kickstart 2025 by comparing Veo 2 to Sora, then asking a bigger question. Can the o3 method be repurposed for different modalities? I piece together the evidence, and argue that we could see step-changes in more than just text-based reasoning.
Link for off-line watching: 2025-01-03 18:30:12 +0000 UTC
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Media Misreporting Over o1's 'Escape' - 70 page report highlights - why o1 did what it did
Everyone saw the headlines - o1 tried to escape. But did it? And why? Don't believe the media hysteria.
Download Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QxnBRfPdG54s5F0a92pC49w5tD3GweMx/view?usp=sharing
Apollo R...
DeepMind Prof. Tim Rocktäschel on Takeoff Speeds, GDP 2x-ing, Gemini 2, ASI timelines and Automating Science
I quiz Google Deepmind Principal Scientist Prof. Tim Rocktäschel on AGI to ASI timelines, promptbreeding, GDP 2x-ing, Gemini 2 and automating science.
https://geni.us/ArtificialIntelligence
AI vs Human Creativity. Can you tell them apart? Plus, a key battleground for 2025 onwards
New reports in the Washington Post and Telegraph got me down a rabbit hole of poetic and artistic exploration. The results were ... interesting. But the conclusions, for business vs labor, could be profound.
Download Link: 2024-11-19 19:08:45 +0000 UTC
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Pod 10: 4 Reasons Why Data is Now Even More Important: Scaling plateaus, judge rulings, test-time training paper and post-AGI jobs - Let's Think Sip-by-Sip
Today's Bloomberg Piece: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai?s=09
Reuters Quotes Sutskever:...
A Step Toward Nationalizing AI? White Memo Full Analysis and Context
A White House Memo released in the last 72 hours is hard to ignore. It is the clearest statement yet from the US Govt that it thinks ‘general-purpose AI’ is coming soon, and that it could upend international order. They want to get much more involved, for better or worse. Here are the 28 most impactful excerpts from the Memo, together with t...
2024-10-27 16:29:36 +0000 UTC View PostPod 9: Full Simple-Bench Results, o1-preview to Grok-2 - Let's Think Sip by Sip
At last, full Simple bench results for 13 models, including the new Grok 2, o1-preview, and latest Gemini. Plus, what's coming next.
Link for Download: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iH1B4qBgA82WdBczlHRlwC_4ZbDCgC0X/vie...
'Machines of Loving Grace' - Key Highlights. 'All the 21st Century ... by 2036.'
The CEO of the one of the leaders in the race to human-level AI (Anthropic), envisions ‘Machines of Loving Grace’, watching over us. Dario Amodei weaves in hundreds of predictions in biology, neuroscience, economies and global politics, all premised on the ‘optimistic scenario’. Released less than 48 hours, I give you the full highlights...
2024-10-13 19:05:59 +0000 UTC View Post