The HRRR had been consistent run to run resolving a good tail-end storm in Texas. SPC has a 2% chance of tornadoes along the front from TX to Greenland. But, Dew points and tornado parameters are a little higher on the OK/KS border. I’ll be rolling the dice for some sweet panhandle magic. See everyone there.
2022-05-31 16:13:21 +0000 UTC View Post
EDIT: After taking in consideration distance to tomorrow’s target I’ll be chasing the Kansas 5% today.
I’m lost in parameters today guys and can’t offer much guidance. Minnesota looks like chaos (messy, fast and unpredictable) at a glance. I think I’m just going to dip my toes in and see if any clarity surfaces later on. I’m n...
2022-05-30 14:25:35 +0000 UTC View Post
At a glance it looks like I’ll be targeting the Missouri River vicinity in NE/SD. Current plan is to get on innit and dial in. I’m still down in Salina Kansas digesting eggs, ham, pancakes and coffee. Thanks for the breakfast Patrons. Good luck chasers!
2022-05-29 16:45:20 +0000 UTC View Post
With the help of your generosity I was able to bag this beauty on May 4, 2022. It's actually nice when tornadoes go where roads do not. You get to kick back in stress free awe.
I gambled (with confidence) that the atmosphere near South Dakota tomorrow evening will remain non-tornadic, but I'll likely hit up the Northern P...
2022-05-27 20:26:49 +0000 UTC View Post
There's a few targets today. I'll likely be playing the triple point (where the surface low, front and dryline meet)...
YESTERDAY was pretty wowwie! Scored 4 or 5 tornadoes. Here are some raw video screen grabs for now. &nb...
2022-05-24 17:40:56 +0000 UTC View Post
I’m currently getting suckered toward the Lubbock vicinity for a round of storms today. Tornado potential is very low and the lightning very high. Good luck devoted chasers!
It's a long shot for tornadoes, but only a 5 hour drive. That's about $90 in gas there and back. I think that's worth the odds. Maybe some good lightning at the very least. I'll post updates if anything interesting happens. Gotta go!
Good luck Michigan chasing suckers. :D
2022-05-20 17:14:36 +0000 UTC View Post
Hello Patrons,
I'm currently composing TexMex guitar for a full account video of the May 4th family of tornadoes. This video indulges requests for longer cuts and entire chases, though I jump cut the less exciting moments. With some uncertainty I'm currently crediting myself with 6 tornadoes for the day, not including man...
2022-05-17 18:05:21 +0000 UTC View Post
This 10% tornado outlook is different from ones storm chasers get anxious for. Rather than discreet supercells and their beautiful danger dangles, this outlook suggests tornado potential in embedded in messy surging squall lines. Generally these QLCS tornadoes (Quasi Linear Convective System) are random and transient EFO-1s and rarely stronger t...
2022-05-12 15:17:11 +0000 UTC View Post
After a night in a disgusting $55 motel6 in York Nebraska, I’m thinking early storm initiation around 1pm in northeast Nebraska today.
Had five days off to dump and sort all that sweet tornado footage captured on May 4th. Looks like I documented 6 tornadoes not including many satellite / gustnado type spin-ups. The longer video version...
2022-05-11 14:10:56 +0000 UTC View Post
Lots of opportunities for Mother Nature to vent her frustrations today all over North Texas and Oklahoma. Let's hope she's forgiving. I'll likely be heading to the Amarillo area. Conga line assemble! (FYI, that's what Tim Marshall calls the frustrated line of chasers in the middle of nowhere)
Happy hunting chasers. Heads up de...
2022-05-04 14:39:57 +0000 UTC View Post
Here's a little something I captured Monday. I'll be chasing tomorrow and should have time for a detailed forecast in the morning.
Hope this post doesn't ping any sleeper's phones.
Thanks everyone.
2022-05-04 06:55:10 +0000 UTC View Post
Gonna try to get near the 15% outlook and fine tune a forecast if time allows. I'm a little behind after being suckered south of Lubbock yesterday for a hail and dust cell. Got some neato apocalyptic captures... I think. The WindBreaker is around 6000 highway miles with the last oil change. Hoping to get that done today i...
2022-05-02 15:36:37 +0000 UTC View Post
Again, today is like plugging in a USB... 50/50 you'll guess right. I'm leaning toward the Northern target probably because its a LOT less driving. Looks like a busy week.
On Friday, Shaw was closer and confirmed this funnel cloud was definitely a tornado with a pretty good spin up on the ground for a while. Haven'...
2022-05-01 16:37:20 +0000 UTC View Post
A very confusing target today if aiming for discreet supercells… Models seem to suggest a series of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective System / surging cluster of storms) will mitigate the photogenic tornado potential on the Kansas Nebraska border, but I’m uncertain… likely a biproduct of my 10% significant tornado outlook pattern recognition opti...
2022-04-29 13:37:12 +0000 UTC View Post
If you're getting kicked out of the hotel, I recommend forecasting for dummies... The HRRR model supercell composite and reflectivity parameters may get you close...
2022-04-23 16:39:01 +0000 UTC
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Yesterday was the premiere of "The Ballad of Pecos Hank" at the 5point film festival in Carbondale Colorado. They generously offered to fly my out & hook me up in a fancy hotel if I showed up and said a few words after the film. I respectfully passed up the offer, food, booze and schmooze to chase yesterday's storms. ...
2022-04-22 15:35:21 +0000 UTC View Post
Today appears to be a re-run of yesterday. 1 degree Celsius may make the difference between a big storm or blue sky. See all the other chumps in the target area today. Put on your sunscreen.
I’ll likely be BSn with Mr Shaw again tod...
2022-04-21 14:55:47 +0000 UTC View Post
The NAM says Bam! The HRRR says Brrrr. Har har.
The last NAM run resolved what would likely be a photogenic storm near OKC. The HRRR said stay at home and watch Netflix stock plunge.
I’ll be in OK looking for snakes and turtles at the very least. Looks like a few days of possibilities.
Good luck chasers!
2022-04-20 17:37:00 +0000 UTC
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Rollin’ rollin’ rollin’…Hoping to fish something out of a mess today in the circled vicinity. Very optimistic I’ll enjoy driving through rainy forests. Gotta roll! Stay safe everyone.
2022-04-13 16:16:31 +0000 UTC View Post
Yesterday a small group chasers were treated to pretty views of a supercell from the top of a ridge in Eastern Oklahoma. Got a brief hang with fellow Patrons Aman and Joel.
2022-04-12 15:20:24 +0000 UTC
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Heading into the beautiful, but very challenging chase country of SE OK. Lots of hills, trees and curvy roads. I’ll try to post worthy updates in this thread. Last two chases my photos were not uploading, so if you can’t see them it’s me, not you. Good luck chasers!
Interesting side note that the NAM is not resolving storms, but the...
2022-04-11 17:42:52 +0000 UTC View Post
Good weekend Patrons! It's looking like a lot of stormy opportunity next week. Hopefully we can fish tornado's that occur outa all this...
Attached below are my blank forecast maps that I use to jot down spaghetti plans and notes. Pick...
2022-04-09 15:38:14 +0000 UTC View Post
I think I’m going to target potential supercells after sunset on the tail end of the surging cold front / convective system outflow. Why not?
Current target is west of i35 (black circle) at 7-8pm. Probably shoulda left sooner.
Don’t try and make sense of my chicken scratch and I’ll try to post worthy updates and nonsense her...
2022-04-04 18:33:30 +0000 UTC View Post
I'm digging up old bones for my next video and came across this. High res download in attachments below. (EXPIRED)
The new video might be completed next weekend depending if there are good storm opportunities next week. I'm Ready for it! Are You?
Thanks Patrons
Hank
2022-03-31 20:36:35 +0000 UTC View Post
I decided to sit this one out based on the expectations of impossibly messy storm modes. There might be a window later today for forecastable tornadic storms near the MS/AL border. Hope I'm wrong. We can discuss the event here today If you'd like.
YESTERDAY's STORMS in TEXAS
Apologies for teasing you guys with the b...
2022-03-22 15:50:57 +0000 UTC View Post
The current obvious initial target is A with the likely more photogenic and less messy storm modes. C is a good second candidate for a strong tornado with higher SRH (Storm Relative Helicity / Spin in the atmosphere relative to the storm) but more mess to wade through. I'll be keeping a closer eye on B in the event things aren't as m...
2022-03-21 16:02:17 +0000 UTC View Post
The producers did a great job superimposing my tornado footage into this music video. If you're an Arcade Fire fan, you'll wanna give this one an extra whirl.
Thanks Bash for sending me this link.
STORMS MONDAY - TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY
Looks like a back to back to back severe weather event is assembling next week from Texas...
2022-03-18 14:28:42 +0000 UTC View Post
...But possible. I'll be monitoring conditions today for a potential brief backyard chase. There may be a small dusk window for something photogenic south of the DFW chaos just prior to the jungle thicket. If I'm not being a slacker, the red circle may be my target. I'll post updates if I decide to go in this thread. &nbs...
2022-03-14 16:41:31 +0000 UTC View Post
Here are all my doodads and how they are mounted. I hope you find some solutions to make your driving and storm chasing safer in this video. Disclaimer, I've been using this similar system since about 2010 and added more cameras and components once the previous doodads were mastered and second nature. Please do not try to run m...
2022-03-10 22:45:12 +0000 UTC View Post