Hey everyone -- If I were to do a podcast episode that compares 2 superstars, who would you want to hear me discuss? This would expand or explore on any content I've already produced on these players. The idea here is to juxtapose someone against a specific player instead of viewing him in isolation.
For example, Nash-Paul is an inte...
2019-07-15 19:15:23 +0000 UTC View PostHey everyone -- I've updated the GOAT valuations to include this prior season. I've pulled out 2019 into its own tab along with a few additional players I looked at this year. It's not technically a top-30 list, but it's a view at the top defensive and offensive players in the league and a few other guys I analyzed this year in greater depth bas...
2019-07-12 21:51:08 +0000 UTC View PostSpreadsheet is updated with the final 2019 BPM results. Working on a longer post-mortem on the Finals that I will post on Backpicks.com
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPt5oybqcWmazOhQ8JVA4kdchKh14DufF3...
2019-06-16 17:22:36 +0000 UTC View PostHi all - quick update, I'm trying to move more posts to my website in order to support more content/multimedia in the content. You should be able to unlock posts with your Patreon account.
Please let me know if any of you have trouble seeing a post.
Many of you have asked for playoff leaders in my BPM model and some have specifically inquired about Nikola Jokic. Jokic leads the NBA in postseason BPM at +8.2, well ahead of the next best mark so far:
The usual small sample-sized warnings apply f...
2019-05-11 19:54:04 +0000 UTC View PostOne of the major issues with plus-minus based metrics is that they are super noisy. Even single-year RAPMs, put through the mathematical magic of "regularization," are still kind of noisy for my taste.
For my recent video about star players improving or declining in the playoffs, I needed to call on metrics with smaller samples than a full...
2019-04-27 15:15:59 +0000 UTC View PostI couldn't fit every notable player in the latest video on changes in the playoffs -- I'll have more in-depth videos on plenty of these players in the future -- but there were a few big names that I cut for time. I'll get to their changes in the metrics outlined in the video, but first a technical note that was too dense for the video:
Pla...
2019-04-13 14:01:00 +0000 UTC View PostMy latest video asks the question: Is Giannis Antetokounmpo now the best player in basketball?
I'm not entirely sure yet, and I always find it tricky to pinpoint emerging players without a larger sample (and, at the least, the playoffs). But I am pretty sure he's one of the three best players this year, and I think he's better than c...
2019-04-07 18:41:27 +0000 UTC View PostThere's a legendary poster on realgm (who has worked for NBA teams) with the handle TrueLAFan -- as in, a Clippers fan, not a Lakers fan -- and many years ago he put together a guide on estimating rebounding percentage (TRB%) before 1971, when the league started officially tracking opponent rebounds.
In my Trae Young video this week I talked about his propensity for long 3s. Per basketball-reference's play-by-play, more than half of Young's 3s (!) were from 27 feet or longer.
As we'd expect, accuracy typically drops off as shots grow longer and longer, and these long3s are no exception. The leaders in 27+ attempts will look famil...
2019-03-09 18:56:07 +0000 UTC View PostSo I often have random little thoughts that don't necessarily make it to publication, and I'm trying to find more ways to share them with patrons. Interested to see if you guys like this quick-hit content...
-As of this latest update, Giannis has overtaken James Harden in my BPM model. Harden had held the top spot since the last update in ...
2019-02-24 21:46:50 +0000 UTC View Post
There's a lot of variability in outside shooting numbers, so to increase sample I prefer to look at 2-year numbers. Here, I've filtered for at least 250 attempts, which is still a bit on the small side. Players with 400-500 attempts are fairly close to a "true" number -- remember, these catch-and-shoots are not filtered by openness or difficulty...
2019-01-27 19:44:43 +0000 UTC View PostHappy New Year everyone!
It took a few months of patronage, but as you know, I was finally able to start making video-based content, and not only was it immediately satisfying to stitch together game film, but the feedback on YouTube has been incredible. My third video (Lonzo Ball) has 200,000 views (!) as of writing this, and channe...
2019-01-13 18:24:53 +0000 UTC View PostI've gone ahead and updated the data in the shared spreadsheet. It now contains all player-seasons since the shot clock (1955) with some notable additions, mainly:
-My BPM model (overall and defense)
-My BPM model for the playoffs - you'll see a playoff-only number ("PS") and a RS-PS blend that gives the PS performance more weight
... 2018-12-16 17:45:13 +0000 UTC View PostHey everyone -- just a quick update. I've started a YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3HPbvB6f58X_7SMIp6OPYw
The plan is to make a series of player profiles this year and go from there. I'm tentatively thinking of profiling the ...
2018-12-13 16:35:27 +0000 UTC View Post
Hey everyone -- first podcast is up. It's all about scoring -- its value compared to playmaking, the value of high-volume seasons, and the best regular season scorers ever.
I definitely wouldn't be doing this without your continued support, so thanks for that. Let me know your thoughts!
2018-08-16 15:38:33 +0000 UTC View Post