If You Sold Your Silver Too Early

After reading the comments, I see that many people have sold their silver too early.

First, you should not be kicking yourself, especially if you made a profit.

You had your reasons to sell at that point in time. Maybe you expected a pullback. Maybe you wanted to lock in your gains. You did not make an illogical decision; you had your logical reasons in the back of your mind.

But what's done is done. Now the question is what do you do now?

Do you wait for a pullback in silver?
Do you get back in now?
Do you invest in something else?

Here's what I would do...

First, you must realize that there are pros and cons to each path. That's the truth.

Waiting for a pullback:
If you wait for a pullback in silver, and it happens, then you can re-establish your position and maybe even end up with more than your original size for the same amount of money. You'll look and feel like a God damn genius or feel like the luckiest person ever. But if it doesn't retrace and it keeps going up, you're going to be upset that you missed the boat and sold too early. And you're probably going to be in a bad mood whenever you even hear the word "silver". And every headline you see that says "silver reaches new all-time" high will get you so upset. I understand how this feels and the situation, we've all been there. It's emotional agony.

Getting back in now:
It's the same story. If you re-enter now and it keeps going up, you're going to feel great. If you re-enter now and it goes down, you're going to be so upset knowing that you sold too early and you're holding the bag as it goes down. I guarantee you, you'll feel so stupid having one bad decision lead to another.

Honestly, it's a God damn conundrum. Especially with an asset that's as volatile as silver, and an asset that's as manipulated as silver.

If I sold my silver too early, I would transition to gold. I would do it now.

The original plan was for the GSR to drop to our target in the 40s and then sell the silver for gold. If you sold too early, then you're simply making the transition a little earlier. It's not like gold has been going down. Gold and silver have both been going up, silver has just been running faster than gold. That might continue, that might not.

But all we know is that the fiat currency system is facing disruption. The debasement continues. They're going to continue printing more money and devaluing fiat. I see gold to continue going up. And gold is less volatile than silver.

If you get into gold right now with your silver money and it continues to go up, then you'll have no reason to complain, regardless of what silver does. Honestly, you'll probably be very happy, and so will your portfolio.

If you get into gold right now and precious metals experiences a pullback, then silver should go down more than gold. And in that scenario, you can re-allocate some of your gold towards silver. And then strategically speaking, you'll be set-up well.

If I sold my silver too early, I would not sit on those funds in cash and wait for a general pullback (at least not with all of the money). I would rather wait in gold than cash.

And I want you to see this:

Look at the performance of gold vs. the S&P 500 for the past 25 years. The blue line is the S&P 500.

It's not just recently that gold has been outperforming stocks. It's been an ongoing thing.

YOU KNOW that because of all money printing and inflation that the S&P 500 just keeps going up because of financial asset inflation. Investing in the S&P 500 has been the easiest and dumbest way to keep up with monetary inflation. But just take some comfort in knowing that gold has been historically outperforming the S&P 500. If you have a long-term mindset, I have no problem waiting in gold (rather than cash), despite the risk of short-term pullbacks.

But if you want to take your silver funds and allocate between gold, S&P 500, and cash, that's fine too, especially if you're looking for protection/diversification. But I think the best approach is to stay invested. And my preferred route is with gold.