Chapter 184

"First of all, let me clarify: everything I’m about to propose is based on the premise that you, Father, have a way to remove Robert from the equation."

Tyrion spoke confidently, though he couldn’t shake a faint sense of absurdity. A year ago, he would have never imagined himself discussing regicide so casually. Yet managing the vast enterprises of the Night’s Watch had sharpened his mind and profoundly altered his perspective. Kings, he now realized, were just nobles one rank higher. If Robert Baratheon sought to destroy House Lannister, then his crown meant nothing—he had to die.

"Before planning anything else, we must secure our fallback option—prepare for an escape across the Narrow Sea."

"Lannisport is full of ships," Tywin said with a hint of irritation. "Are you suggesting we start loading our wealth onto them before the war even begins? The plan’s success or failure determines everything. If it fails, we’ll flee—that’s my guarantee."

"I trust you, Father. With our escape plan in place, the next step is setting our strategic objectives. It’s clear we cannot win in a direct confrontation. Our only option is to delay—drag things out until our people in the Red Keep succeed in eliminating Robert and chaos erupts in King’s Landing."

On the table was a map of Westeros. Too short to reach it properly, Tyrion climbed onto his chair, standing to point at specific locations. "The ultimatum gives us ten days, ostensibly to consider their terms. In reality, it’s to give the other six kingdoms time to mobilize. The Vale has just put down its rebellion, so their forces can regroup quickly. Time is not on our side. Our first question is: if we strike preemptively, who do we target, and how do we act?"

"The Riverlands and the Reach are the primary granaries of the Seven Kingdoms. Raiding either could disrupt their supply lines and troop mobilization," Kevan suggested. "If we must choose, it has to be the Riverlands. The Reach is far more fertile, producing crops year-round, but their strength is overwhelming. Provoking them would only hasten our demise."

...

"You’re absolutely right, Uncle. The Reach is untouchable," Tyrion said, pointing to the easternmost part of the Reach near Searoad Strand. "Robert made a similar mistake during his rebellion against the Targaryens. Instead of heading north to strike at King’s Landing or rendezvousing with allies, he marched west into Tyrell territory to flaunt his strength. He sought a decisive victory to prevent the Reach from aiding the royal forces against Storm’s End. Instead, Randyll Tarly crushed him with a mere vanguard, nearly killing him and turning him into a laughingstock."

The room was silent. Despite Robert’s ultimate victory, his earlier blunders weighed heavily in the current context. Tyrion continued.

"The Reach is fascinating," Tyrion said, pacing on his chair. "It’s the wealthiest, most populous, and most resource-rich region in Westeros—a true uncrowned king among the Seven Kingdoms. Aegon the Conqueror understood this, which is why he humiliated the Gardener dynasty by elevating their stewards, the Tyrells, to Highgarden’s seat. It was a masterstroke: the Reach’s noble houses, proud of their 'Greenhand' bloodline, have never fully accepted the Tyrells. They’ve fractured into factions, paying their liege lord only lip service."

Tyrion glanced at his family. "But the Reach nobility shares one defining trait: they are fiercely insular. They may bicker endlessly among themselves, but the moment an outsider intervenes, they unite against the common threat. Provoking them would rally the entire Reach against us. That’s a fight we cannot win.

"The Riverlands, however, are different. The Tullys are unremarkable in strength and leadership. Their vassals remain loyal only because Lord Hoster married his daughters into powerful houses. Even the troublesome Freys have quieted since acquiring Robb Stark as a son-in-law. But make no mistake—the Riverlands will contribute significantly to the coalition against us. Preemptively striking them would cripple their ability to support the North, the Vale, and the Arryn-Tully-Stark alliance."

This aligned perfectly with Tywin’s own thoughts. He nodded for Tyrion to continue.

...

"When attacking the Riverlands, we must be clear about our objectives," Tyrion explained. "The Westerlands lack neither resources nor wealth; we lack soldiers and time. Our goal isn’t conquest—it’s destruction. Deploy fast-moving, elite cavalry to wipe out smaller Riverlands forces while avoiding prolonged engagements with their main host. Burn crops, destroy granaries, and disrupt their logistics, but minimize civilian casualties—especially among women and children. When the armies of the Vale and the North arrive, they’ll face a devastated Riverlands full of starving mouths to feed, complicating their supply lines and prolonging their campaign. This delay could buy us the time we need."

Cersei scowled at Tyrion’s confident performance. She hated seeing him dominate the family’s most critical meeting. Jaime, on the other hand, was intrigued. Though he had always heard of Tyrion’s wit, he had rarely witnessed it in action. Initially shocked by the suggestion of a preemptive strike, Jaime now found himself impressed by his brother’s strategy.

...

"Well thought out," Tywin said coldly. "What else?"

Tyrion smiled. "Mercenaries won’t be as easy to hire this time, will they?"

"In the past, word of Lannister recruitment would bring hedge knights and freeriders from across the Seven Kingdoms. This time, facing an unwinnable war, even increased pay won’t attract more than half the usual numbers," Kevan admitted. "When the fighting begins, our forces will likely consist of Lannisport’s garrison, expanded household troops, and a few thousand hired swords. Training peasants into soldiers won’t be quick enough to make a difference."

"Forget new recruits. If Robert isn’t dead by the time their forces breach Golden Tooth and Oxcross, we’ll be fleeing by ship. No amount of fresh troops will save us then." Tyrion’s tone was blunt. "We need to delay as long as possible, not just through defense but through disruption. Send envoys to the Stepstones and Essos to hire pirates and mercenary companies. They might not fight the coalition directly, but they can raid the eastern coasts of Westeros—from the North to Dorne. With enough gold, they can turn the Narrow Sea into chaos."

Tyrion traced a line on the map, his finger moving from Last Hearth along the North’s coastline, down past the Vale’s Sisters, Gulltown, and Dragonstone, then south through Storm’s End and Dorne, finally looping west to the Shield Islands. "From north to south, our mercenaries and pirates will raid every coastal stronghold, village, and port. They may not capture castles or cities, but their presence alone will force our enemies to divert troops and resources.

"Of course," Tyrion added with a smirk, "we’ll deny any connection to them."

Kevan shivered. Tyrion’s audacity was both terrifying and impressive. He had changed profoundly in just a year, becoming someone far more ruthless and cunning.

"This plan leaves us no room for retreat," Kevan muttered, dabbing sweat from his brow. "Tywin, this is… dangerous."

...

Tywin studied the map, his expression dark. For all his reputation as a cold, calculating strategist, Tywin Lannister felt the weight of this unprecedented crisis. Beneath his unyielding exterior burned a near-obsessive desire to preserve the Lannister legacy. He could not—would not—accept humiliation.

"We have less than one million gold dragons. Half of that must be reserved for the war effort. Will 500,000 suffice for this plan of yours?" Tywin asked.

"It won’t," Tyrion admitted. "Even one million might fall short. But we can use hefty deposits to entice the pirates and mercenaries to act, while deferring full payment. Domestically, we’ll issue IOUs where possible. If necessary, I have other methods to raise funds."

Tywin’s eyes narrowed. "Other methods?"

"A brother of the Night’s Watch taught me the principles of finance. After testing them in King’s Landing, I’ve mastered the basics. If you agree, I’ll establish Westeros’ first true bank—Lannister Bank. With our house’s reputation for paying debts, we’ll revolutionize the game of gold."

"Interesting," Tywin murmured, intrigued but wary. He had considered banking before but lacked the expertise to implement it.

"Tonight, Father, I’ll explain the details. But understand this: no matter how well we delay, the Lannister family’s survival hinges on Robert’s death—and what comes after."

Kevan hesitated. "Even if Robert dies, Stannis and Renly might not vie for the throne with Eddard Stark controlling the capital."

"Then I’ll give Renly the courage," Tywin said. "I’ll treat him as a king, offer my support, and promise to neutralize Stark’s forces. He’ll have no excuse not to act."

The plan was bold, ambitious, and fraught with risk. Tywin tightened his grip on the map, steeling himself for the bloody gambit to come.