Master Sports Betting with Monte Carlo Simulations!
Added 2024-06-30 11:56:57 +0000 UTCG'day lads, download the MLS Excel file featured in my latest video below! π₯
Note: I've "frozen" the 10,000 simulations in the file so that it doesn't lag. To re-run the simulations for new odds in the "Analysis" worksheet, delete the existing simulations and run the 'Data Table' like I did in the video after pressing the "Refresh All" icon to refresh the data (scores and results).
Please let me know if you have any questions about it. A 'Legacy' file, for those without access to array formulas in Excel, will be available shortly π
Comments
Hello lad! Yes, at the bottom of every post there should be an Excel file to download. In this post, there are two files available to download (I just added another one). Firstly, the spreadsheet example with "frozen" simulations. I've "frozen" the 10,000 simulations in the file so that it doesn't lag. To re-run the simulations for new odds in the "Analysis" worksheet, delete the existing simulations and run the 'Data Table' like I did in the video after pressing the "Refresh All" icon to refresh the data (scores and results). The second file, "Excel LADZ - MLS Futures Model (100 Simulations)" doesn't have frozen simulations. All you need to do is press the "Refresh All" icon in the 'Data' tab and the simulations will update. However, there is only 100 as Excel takes a long time to process this information/simulations. Hopefully that helps lad, let me know if you have anymore questions π
Excel LADZ
2024-07-04 10:51:13 +0000 UTCSo thereβs no way to actually have the excel spreadsheet example? What was the payment for, I saw the same video on Youtube
Premier Fut 7
2024-07-04 10:09:14 +0000 UTCThank you Lad for the quick response!! Looks like I'll have to do it the old fashion way and manually do it game by game!!
Vega$$lim
2024-07-02 08:51:11 +0000 UTCHi lad, thanks for watching π₯ I like to split a futures model into parts. First, you have to be able to simulate a single game. Then, simulate the game "x" amount of time to play out a season. Then, simulate the season "x" amount of times to get a distribution of results. For baseball, the only difference would be the probability distribution of runs in a game. Unfortunately, you can't use the Poisson distribution as runs often come in a clump; that is, you can't assume runs aren't totally independent from each other (an assumption of Poisson). In the MLB Model on YouTube and on the Patreon I talk about how I've had to use a custom probability distribution, which I found in a scholarly article. From there, you would just have to do that for every game, and then simulate the results to get an idea of how likely each event is π Hopefully that helps, let me know if you have anymore questions π
Excel LADZ
2024-06-30 23:27:09 +0000 UTCThank you Lad!! Much appreciated!! Quick question. How would I implement this same model for Different sports starting with Baseball? What formulas are key for me to change to get the same type of modeling. I don't want to sound ungrateful as I truly know the time it takes to create these fine models. But there is a tremendous market for monthly best records for the month and would like to tap into this. Again Thank you Lad for all that you do!!
Vega$$lim
2024-06-30 13:46:26 +0000 UTC
