Early release

Excellent history lesson in basic and easy to understand context. Let's us hope this lesson is absorbed by others. We cannot afford tobecome overwhelmed byvthe liers & there lies. To be ruled by b the whilms of the intellectual cowardice of current players is an other wordly distopian outcome. Pirate minded fascists concealing themselves in the vail of theocratic intervention is Pre WW2 Germany 2.0 theocratic nationalist deamons the lot of them.

Curtis Wall

In this specific scenario with generations of animosity, if one side, let's say Blue in this case, is willing to "turn the other cheek" and use diplomacy rather than force, would it be possible over a generation to resolve the conflict?

Brian Jones

Thank you for what you do Beau.

John and Donna Ennis

Made me think of Eminiar vs Vendikar. Thanks for this dissection.

Jon Adams

Thinking of Lord Acton's statement (had to ask Google for assistance) that a person's sense of morality lessens as his/her power increases...

Joan Elkins

Hey Beau. I sent you a direct message through patron. Would you please take a look at it I wanted to talk to you about the message. I would really appreciate getting back to me. Thank you.

Nick & Nicole Erwin

I just keep watching the tear-jerking news about hospitals in Gaza. If the surrounding Sun-worshipping states are allowing this to happen to Red, including using innocents as human shields, whilst instigating a strong reaction for defense and survival from Blue, who altogether claims they have no choice but to destroy Red, then what are the poor innocents of Red (hospital casualties) and Blue (hostages) considered? Collateral damage? The "cost" of war, "interests," or whatever this "game" is for a "power trip"?! It's hard for me not to feel confused, heartbroken, worried, concerned, and angry on multiple sides and at multiple people for this. Yet, my core values blind me and make me biased. It's hard to overcome core values, past training, past indoctrination (or whatever you want to call it when it comes to learned religion, learned socialization, learned customs, learned culture, etc.). It's so confusing - and heartbreaking to those who aren't psychopaths.

+1 Invalid link for new supporters, guess we're the "others" they keep warning us about

mclardass

Omagh 1998. Horrible bomb in Ireland.

Beau of The Fifth Column

"Think Oma" -- I don't recognize the reference; I assume I'm parsing the sound wrong. Can someone please set me straight on this?

Phil Sevetson

Hey Beau. I sent you a DM regarding my org and your recent Vids about corruption and Hawleys amendment. Seriously some possibilities of working together for good!! Read it in your inbox reply back to me I would really like to hear what you have to say on the subject

Nick & Nicole Erwin

Can you update the discord link?

Joe Kelley

He did something like this after Uvalde, I think. Can’t remember which channel, but I know he has done this somewhat recently

Megan Lyn

What gets countries to change their strategies or victory conditions? Are there any historical examples of nations doing this during times of war?

Annie

My feelings be unhelpful on this one, so what do the callous manuals say for this situation?

Vanessa Elkins

“Don’t Look Up”. Maybe if these leaders would stop looking up at the Moon and Sun and look at the human beings across their borders things would begin to change.

Atheist Jesus

Is it possible to avoid the really horrible event by using popular pressure to influence the more powerful country to change its victory conditions?

Debbie Duenas

I'm a little confused 😕 about why Palestine's allies wouldn't want them to win? I thought countries like Iran, Syria Lebanon, and Iraq wanted Israel wiped off the map.

SteVibiana

The idea that the Allies would benefit by allowing Red to suffer (at the time, in camps in then-Jordon) was an on-going topic at the dinner table in 1967. Those 'young men' are now elders and they have seen their children, and children's children get nowhere. That sense of futility layered with outrage (I learned from my parents, then) would never be assuaged. Not even in victory.

Meg Feeley

The people of RED country have to see this type of analysis and see that they need to take control over their destiny, their leadership, because they will never be able to live in peace. The people in Blue country need to see this type of analysis and force their leadership to change, or they will never be able to live in peace. The masses still rule, they just have to find a way to come together and force change within, before change occurs outside.

Pete Joachim

Watched on YouTube. I’d like to know what other strategy the red side can have if not to fight?

Sean Lantis

Private means only Beau can see it. Unlisted keeps it available to others, but it doesn't show up in any lists or feeds. (I use Unlisted to put out rehearsal videos for my dance team.)

Barry Drake

Good morning, Beau. Thanks for explaining your intent was to discuss dynamics of conflicts in general not solving any one specific conflict. I am hard-wired to focus on conflict resolution because I grew up in a very violent household. (My father was a malignant narcissist who abused my mother, sister and I both psychologically and physically.) My survival strategy was to look for outside role models and ideas that would give me the hope I didn't get at home. This was also wired into my brain by a class trip I took to the UN when I was 7 years old. Being autistic, that experience got my brain thinking about world peace as another way to survive the war zone at home. Flash forward to the 1980s, and - separate from "The Day After" - I saw a documentary series by British historian James Burke called "The Day the Universe Changed" that showed me the many times in human history when new ideas had literally "changed the universe". New knowledge is potentially world-changing, but it needs to be presented so a critical mass of the public hears about it. This is why I opened my Route 66 Spirit of America Museum in Stroud, OK this past June... to talk to people about how innovative ideas have changed the world and can do so in the future. Buckminster Fuller's work is a case in point about the future. I realize as I write this that - rather than ask you to add an addendum to your video - it's time for me to make a video of my own to kick off a communication effort tied to my museum's mission. I see The Day After was originally shown on November 20, 1983. So, I'll aim to release my video on Nov 20th too... 40th anniversary of that film. Thanks again for all you do. I look forward to meeting you whenever you take your Route 66 trip. Until then, here's a link to the first 10 minutes of the first episode of James Burke's The Day the Universe Changed. Enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REKRLYoz2fc

Steve Brant

A salt the earth approach would probably motivate the regional allies to unite against you. And some of those are also (partial) nuclear powers. At the least the conflict would widen in a larger problem and at worst again all sides lose in a nuclear exchange.

Jobbe Smit

Works now it's released

Jobbe Smit

Same as Craig. Can't see the video.

Kelly Horton

Missed it. Serves me right for sleeping.

Jeff Sparks

Missed it, looking forward to seeing it live

Brekke El

Video won’t play for some reason. Probably should’ve watched it in the middle of the night I guess🤷‍♂️

Sean Lantis

I'm honestly not sure. I think so? I'm using a scheduling feature because I'm heading out and won't be able to publish manually at 8 or schedule it later.

Beau of The Fifth Column

Does that make the video inaccessible during that time? I currently am unable to play it but other Patreon videos work fine.

Craig Belcher

There could be hope: In the UK we had an even longer conflict we refer to as "the troubles" (Northern Ireland). It shared very similar elements. It took the intervention of USA to get all the parties round the table to hammer out a compromise and peace (yes, it worked). Although personally, I think this current situation will only end one way.

Paul Jacques

An extraordinarily brilliant explanation.

Paul Jacques

Ok just as a heads up it'll say "private" when you click the link for the next 2 hours, then it'll be public.

Beau of The Fifth Column

Great to see the whiteboard in action again. ;-) As for feedback: It's great, it's educational, it's confronting, it's horrifying and it's honest. Especially for those people like myself, who tend to live, respond, and react purely on their emotions normally, are being forced to look at the pragmatic side of things. There were a few moments where I had to scroll back to get a better understanding when you referred to; "they, " but that could also just be because I'm a non-native English/American speaker without proper education. In my humble opinion, this video has very high educational purposes. Thank you for making it. I hope it gets shared a lot. As for the change of thought and doom part..., This is just the kind of realism that motivated people to start writing about idealism.

Mo po

For any other no-hopers, changes of strategy do happen. Witness the trajectory of e.g. ETA or the IRA. How and why this happens may be worth exploring

Farm Boy

Others have been saying here that the video is pessimistic, but honestly I'm finding it very helpful for wrapping my head around the state of the world. I've recently started studying power dynamics and poli sci as a way to process some law enforcement induced trauma, and your video makes it even more clear to me that the way things are cannot continue. Thanks so much for helping me stay sane.

Jeff Dobhriste

The problem is actually that yellow is who benefits from the red/blue conflict. The distraction allows yellow to build out their military assets on their islands in what is supposed to be a commonly held part of the Pacific. Yellow could not happier that purple is now preoccupied in two parts of the world, neither geographically proximate to their own. And for what? So that young men and children can die, as long as they are not purple’s young men and children? I have zero optimism about a resolution to red/blues’ problems, and clearly neither do you.

John Caywood

Thank you for this, Beau. I feel like I have no correct response for either side. I feel for the "Free Palestine" crowd while also believing that Israel shouldn't just disappear. I don't know if links work in these comments and I'm not trying to make light of the situation. This song is 15 years old or more and Tim Minchin is a genius. https://youtu.be/WfhFunPO4bQ?si=QyShk9Y2iu60d7Ys

Pelicans are my favorite dinosaur

If I may offer a thought, I think that there might be a certain degree of irrationality here; as the result of a change in what's acceptable in the world. You can't do a carthage anymore. If the establishment power felt comfortable with simply annihilating the enemy, then there could be an ugly, overwhelming solution to this- militarily. But the instinct to push in that direction is still there, despite that world stage preventing it.

Nesyr

Where to find hope, when one wishes a peaceful life for all side's civilians.

AnKeM

I'd be interested in a follow-up video on the way these foreign policy dynamics influence the domestic political landscape in the red and blue countries. My guess is that conflicts cause fear and frustration, which in turn lead to strongman leadership, and that leads to further entrenchment of the self-reinforcing end goals that exacerbate the conflict. This video feels pretty complete and logical, so I'm curious to see what edits you think are necessary.

Ryan Matlock

Well, at the risk of sounding more pessimistic, the change in strategy or victory conditions would be different for every conflict, and I made this video to refer to the dynamics, so in the numerous future conflicts, I can refer to it.

Beau of The Fifth Column

I totally believe that about the leaders in a number of conflicts.

Beau of The Fifth Column

Well, I love the whiteboard, for a start. I'll go watch the rest now.

Jurgen Gosch

This is so horrifying. Why are humans like this? I feel so hopeless about the world at large. It is good to understand, of course, and I appreciate the analysis. But i am still sickened by our greed and cruelty.

Ro

This was very good as is. It tells some truths I don't think people normally want to hear.

Meg the Sparkly Unicorn

After watching this, I found myself wondering "What was Beau's purpose here? Seems like it is "to explain the way things are". And if that's the case then, excuse me for getting emotional, but this is the most "no hope" video I've ever seen from you... well, perhaps other than the video from earlier tonight about sea level change. I get it if you want us to "deal with reality" and get used to the idea that if the players in this power game aren't careful we could wind up having nuclear war. But I don't want nuclear war. You refer to "Changing strategy or victory conditions" without (unless I missed it-) suggesting how those victory conditions could be achieved. You also talk about "goals, national interests, and power" but I kept waiting for you to talk about something I've heard you mention in past videos: "changing thought". You say these conflicts have gone on this way for hundreds of years. Well, I'd like to imagine something innovative can break that pattern. And the innovation that comes to my mind is the 1983 ABC Television movie starring Jason Robards called "The Day After". This film brilliantly portrayed what would happen if tensions between the USA and the USSR got out of control and we wound up having a limited nuclear war. It showed that those who survived (and there would be survivors) faced absolutely brutal conditions and (if the eventual death of Jason Robard's character set the pattern) the survivors would mostly die of radiation sickness. This film scared President Reagan and is credited with helping get the madness of the time under control. So... if I could add an addendum to your otherwise pretty pessimistic video, I would refer to "The Day After" and suggest there's an opening for someone in Hollywood to portray where the world is headed - using whatever hot spot in the world they felt like using as the trigger - and portraying in painfully realistic detail how bad things could go. Such a new version of "The Day After" might scare the right people into having a "change of thought". Thanks as always for all you do. And thanks for listening to my suggestion for offering some hope at the end of your video. And here's an article about the effect "The Day After" had. It includes a quote from Reagan's biography about what the film did to his thinking... https://www.military.com/off-duty/movies/2023/10/11/day-after-director-returns-sound-alarm-how-stop-nuclear-war.html

Steve Brant

Am i very cynical when i think the leaders want to keep the status of perpetual war because it elevates their status?

Hugo van Putten

I liked this one a lot, thanks for sharing. How long did it take you to prepare, and how many takes and such? Your delivery is solid

afro

Great analysis. A couple of points: First, this plays out on a global scale as well as regional. Red’s closest “allies” aren’t necessarily in the same region, and neither is Blue, for that matter. Think about the American Revolution, for example. As John Adams put it, “[France] means … to keep [its] hand under our chin to prevent us from drowning, but not to lift our heads out of the water.” (France didn’t want the US to win, really, they just wanted us to help keep the British busy. They actually wanted Britain’s former colonies under their control instead, but the Founders didn’t fall for their political and military manipulations.) Second: Blue may not always be out to preserve the status quo. Sometimes they quietly welcome an attack so they can go and grab more territory without as much condemnation from the rest of the world.

Sandra Leigh

Excellent! Really good explanation of things that seem so inexplicable. I feel like I understand this so much better now. You've managed to tie together all those bits and pieces that I kind of knew already but didn't quite make sense or felt elusive. Thank you! Btw, I liked the white board. Visual aids are not your norm but I sometimes need them!

Dina

Thanks, Beau. That mythical part of the world has always alluded my understanding.

Merry

That is a fantastic explanation. I wish my history classes had been as straightforward. One of my quirks is that I love animation and I watch a lot of shows meant for kids. This clip from Dragon Prince shows way forward as well as an explanation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op0GP5ISyTM

Anakin Dayton

This was great! Visual aids (used thoughtfully) help deepen my understanding of things and this one combined with your lesson really worked for me.

Antoinette

This felt less like a conversation and more like a lecture, which is different from a typical Beau video. With that being said, it's not a bad thing, it's just different. It's kind of a depressing video as it highlights longstanding conflicts all over the world and the cyclical nature of the violence. My only suggestion would be that if you want to lighten the mood you could use some silly fictional countries like Perun does. If you ask him I'm sure he'd be fine with you using the longstanding conflict between Emutopia and Kiwiland as an example, just like he has in several of his videos.

alexander gaitan

Thank you! Omg I keep forgetting how recently the Troubles ended. I always think it’s mid-80s, right before the USSR feel. Nope, try after it, and only 4ish years before my birth.

Katie Ingrid Falcon

Omagh. Google: Omagh 1998

Beau of The Fifth Column

I really prefer your longer format videos, so this one had me really engaged. Also, the visual aid was a good idea. I appreciate how you broke down Blues and Reds foreign policy without using a moral justification. I would love more of these kinds of videos. Side note: Given your interests, history, and people you know, I think you could make a really good videos covering the basics of first aid. I'm a student, so I feel that I am at risk of having a traumatic event happening to myself or people around me. I think an instructional video teaching me how to build an IFAK and how to use each piece of it would make me more prepared for emergencies. Thanks

Jake Slater

Can you provide some more historical references to the horrible things that happened in the past that changed the dynamics? I don’t doubt that you are correct, I just want to read about the situations you are referring in furtherance of my education.

limell lawson

A Shorter Version for the General Pubic 🤷‍♂️ *On Porpoise

Robert Bess

This format is excellent. Would love to see more like this breaking down general foreign policy concepts. Would love for this to be an ongoing series.

Lukas Abbenhaus

When I people ask me who is right and wrong in these situations I respond with “when?”

Jay

This breaks it all down really well. Not sure people want to hear the message but you're a really good teacher and maybe now more folks can understand it.

Tracey Firestone

I appreciate this analysis. I was wondering if you can recommend a book that explains with detail and nuance, the conflict and how we’ve gotten here in as impartial a way as possible.

Jeff

Hey Beau, the only thing that felt "off" to me was the whiteboard. 🙃 Content wise, I think it's great, as usual, but you are decidedly worried, or wistful, if that was the goal?

Andrea Shilkoff

Crystal clear explication of zero sum & codependent strategies. I wish more people understood why this is a commitment to tragedy and waste.

Zan Zastrow

Prediction before watching, will this be the same thing as “Russia’s best strategy in Ukraine is to leave?” Yeah not really, but what are you saying at 17:50? I’m hearing “Oma.” Is it Omaha (Normandy), Burma, or something else?

Katie Ingrid Falcon

Thank you for late night early releases!

Vanessa Elkins

I like where this is going 😬🤔😊

Robert Bess