Sorare Tactics

GW 492 J1 League Preview - FINAL

Added 2024-07-12 04:49:43 +0000 UTC

Full schedule of J League action coming up this weekend!

The deadline for the upcoming GW is today at 3pm CET.

Fixtures

J1 Table

Machida kept their 5 point lead at the top with another win against struggling Nagoya who are on a 4 game losing streak. Kashima, Gamba and Vissel all got impressive wins.

Sapporo nightmare season continued with their 8th loss in row. They are now 12 points away from safety! Shonan, Kyoto and Sagan all got wins. Kawasaki got a draw and are now just 3 points above the drop.

YFM dismal season continues with Harry Kewell on the brink of the sack. They lost their 4th game in a row.

Main Points

Komai (Sapporo), Naganuma (Sagan), Ishihara (Urawa), Fitzgerald (Niigata), Tashiro (Fukuoka), Yamada (Verdy) , Inoue (Fukuoka),are all suspended. Yuta Miyamoto (Kyoto) cant play due to contract reasons
Yu Hirakawa was the main transfer out this week moving to Bristol City from Machida. Kaneko moved to KV Kortrjik from Sapporo.
Sakai (Kobe) is confirmed out for 8-10 weeks with a broken toe. Miyashiro is also out injured
Soma (Nagoya) has returned from loan. Was expected to transfer again but looks like hes staying. Manager has said he starts this GW
Lots of teams played in the league cup on Wednesday. Kato (Hiroshima) went off with a suspected concussion and assumed out. Players like Okuda (Cerezo) returned.
Kojima (Niigata) seen in light training but atm remains a doubt. Popp situation is similar. Hoping for more info today!
Kawashima is v likely out. Strong hint that Mitsuki Sugimoto will start in nets for Iwata.
The u23 Olympics teams was announced. This will be covered by Sorare. The below are the players who have been called up from J league sides:
All indications are these players will be available to play this gameweek and will join camp later. My working assumption is they will play.
Gamba have just 1 loss in their last 10 games.
Cerezo are unbeaten in 7 league games.
Nagoya are in miserable form with no wins in their last 7 including 4 losses on the bounce.
Sapporo have lost their last 8 games failing to score in each of their last 4 games.

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Sapporo vs Kobe

Sapporo

Bottom of table. 8 losses in a row. Having very poor season
Won midweek in the Emperors cup. Some youngsters did well eg Tanaka, could come in.
Miyazawa, Gun Hee, Supachok all injured. Komai is suspended.
Aoki returned last week from the bench. In the running to start. Asano seen in full training.
Without a clean sheet in 11 games. In general a team to avoid, have conceded the most goals this season. Unstable lineup with not much upside.

Kobe

Back to back wins against rivals Hiroshima and Kashima.
Sakai is out injured. Miyashiro v likely out too with injury.
A few options available at RB including Iino, Kikuchi.
Last week Honda and Hirose played as wingbacks and from trends with this manager, this is most likely again.
Muto and Osako are finding there form and gelling well again after a relatively poor start for the duo.

FC Tokyo vs Niigata

FC Tokyo

Lost back to back games. Knocked out of Emperors cup midweek which went to extra time
Team unstable, lots of changes in players and formation each game.
Trevisan missed last 2 games. Unclear, not seen in training. Kimoto and Oka doing well as CBs
Midfield options also crowded. Matsuki played 120 mins midweek = increased risk of bench.
Have been playing with different strategies including not starting Araki as false 9 and Diego being benched. After two losses with Diego upfront, could see a change here?

Niigata

Kojima has missed last 3 games. Back in light training as of last week. Situation very unclear. Atm Abe fav to start.
Defender Fitzgerald and fwd Gomes suspended. Suzuki went off with hamstring issue and assumed out
Some injured players slowly returning (Takagi, Hasegawa). Miyamoto played a half if the cup game midweek.
Humiliated 6-1 in the Emperors cup to J2 opposition midweek.

Tokyo Verdy vs Machida

Tokyo Verdy

Unchanged team with Someno, Kimura etc benched in 1-1 draw vs Cerezo.
Fuki Yamada got a red and suspended.
Kimura and Someno played in the midweek loss in Emperors cup. Increases risk of one/both benched. Changing back to 4 at the back also a possibility.
Morita is close to returning. As he didnt get any mins midweek in the cup, still a risk to start
This is a local derby.

Machida

Top of the table. Beat Nagoya 1-0
Oh Se Hun used as sub last week. Na Sang Ho is available after injury.
Hirakawa has transferred to Bristol City. Fujimoto/Na Sang Ho have increased chances of starting.
Sento and Shibato have been changing spots lots recently

Nagoya vs Kashiwa

Nagoya

In bad form, winless in 7 league games. 4 losses in a row.
Junker, Ono, Izumi all out injured. Kawazura back and could start. Kennedy back from suspension.
Yonemoto has transferred on loan to Kyoto.
Soma back from loan. Available to play, manager said in interview he will start. He could be playing mind games but if Soma is fit, he is a huge plus for the squad.
Struggling in attack. Just 2 goal in last 5 games.

Kashiwa

Back to back wins for Reysol. Savio in decent form; deceives in each of his last 3 games.
Kakita is now available after transfer from Antlers. His condition is unclear.
Inukai remains injured. Noda has looked decent (and better than Tatsuta!)
Needed extra time to get a win in Emperors cup on Wednesday.

Kyoto vs Urawa

Kyoto

Performance and form improving. Just 1 loss in last 6 league games and back to back wins.
Toyokawa, Api and Yamasaki remain doubts with injuries. Yamazaki also linked to transfer to Cerezo
Miyamoto cant play due to contractual reasons. Unclear who plays as CB. May change to 3 at the back.
Kaneko returned to play in the cup win midweek. Fukuoka doing well so likely continues for now
With the relatively good form, less rotation risks imo
Asada also confirmed injured out and out

Urawa

In general, having poor season given expectations as title contenders. Lost to Shonan last week.
Lots of changes happening ; Scholz, Iwao and Sakai all transferred out. Solbakken has returned to Roma. A couple of new signings including Homma who is in full training.
Okubo, Maeda Koizumi back in full training. Still unlikely to start Nakajima and Matsuo still only in light training
Ishihara is suspended this game. Lack of natural options at rightback, perhaps Sekine if hes fit?
Santana benched last few games. Scored twice last week. Likely starts imo. Gustafson also got mins from the bench. Should start
If he does start, see knock on effects and likely Yasui making way. Lots depends on fitness of players the shape the team take especially who starts RB
Ito made club captain. Playing higher up pitch and looks galvanized.

Hiroshima vs Fukuoka

Hiroshima

Lost to Kobe last week 1-3
Araki returned in the Emperors Cup win midweek. Kato has suspected concussion and assumed out.
Changing midfielders/system alot since Kawamura left. Shiotani can play as DCM if Araki back for example. Hard to demonstrate here, overall I have Araki as 50/50 and waiting for any news today on Araki
Kato v likely out. Could see Mitsuta pushed up to that role or MJ.
Mitsuta did much better on LW. Hoping this continues! Players like Marcos Junior and Vieira could come in.
Unbeaten against Fukuoka in their last 7 meetings.

Fukuoka

Surprise loss to Kyoto and the almighty Ehime midweek in the cup
Tashiro and Inoue suspended. Nara confirmed out for 10-12 months leaves lack of CBs. Could see 4 at the back.
Wellington went off with a hamstring issue. V likely out.

Frontale vs Cerezo

Kawasaki

Having poor season, 15th in the table and just 1 win in last 7. Lost their Emperors cup title midweek to J2 opposition
Lots of players returning to full training. Kurumaya played midweek. Erison came on from the bench and scored
Erison is back in full training. Gomis also seen in training but not sure what fitness level. ST postition has been changing nearly every game.
Ienaga was benched last game. Played full 90 midweek, some fans unhappy with his defensive cover/being at fault for the goals conceeded. The right side of Kawasaki has been targeted by lots of teams.
JSR made a howler last game. Another risk tbh
Lineup has been unstable all season. Could see changes again. Similar to YFM, try to avoid or use in less important team atm.

Cerezo Osaka

Unbeaten in 8 league games and 5th in the table
Noborizato is back in light training, pencilled in to return later this month.
Okuda missed last game with illness. Returned in league cup loss. Sakata another option
Bueno assumed injured. Uejo has played last 3 games
Side has been relatively stable. Players like Shabyama, Tameda and Croux offer alternatives.
Lots of noise about Kagawa leaving the club. One to monitor for now.
Fernandes and Ceara in particular doing v well this season irl and on SO5
Unbeaten against Kawasaki in their last 7 meetings.

Shonan vs Iwata

Shonan

Big win in relegation battle away to Urawa. Tanaka again in great form.
Without a clean sheet in 10 league games
Hiraoka. Onose and Abe recent injuries. Tachii missing from last couple of squads.
Beat Tokyo Verdy in the Emperors cup midweek. Akito Suzuki with the goal.

Iwata

Got a last min equaliser in 2-2 draw with Kawasaki. Inconsistent form and 16th in the table.
Kawashima went off with a muscle problem. Strong hint that Mitsuki Sugimoto will make his full debut this game.

Sagan vs Gamba

Sagan

Two impressive wins in a row for Sagan. Beat Niigata 4-3 last week.
Yokohama scored twice last week. Lots of press coverage and some links that Machida are interested in him esp after they lost Hirakawa. Still tentative atm.
Kawahara has been in and out of the side recently. Also has transfer rumours (to hiroshima) swirling around him.

Gamba

Impressive 4-0 demolition of YFM last week
Handa likely returns as RB
Alano returned from injury and been building up mins. Started midweek in cup game

YFM vs Kashima

YFM

In terrible form, lost last 4 games
Needed pens to win in Emperors cup on Wednesday.
Kamijima went off at half time, unclear if there was a problem. Eduardo took a knock last game though played 45 mins.
Hatanaka himself said he is fully fit. Depends on YFM medical team if he plays. Concern that he wasnt even on bench midweek.
Nagato v likely out. Watanabe still recovering from concussion
Elber played 110mins midweek. Still looks rusty. Could be rotated out
Popp seen in training videos. Again wasnt used in midweek game. Some risk here.
Hoping for some training news before deadline. Will post if anything comes...lots of things unclear atm
At the moment, YFM are a team with rock bottom confidence and playing without any of their normal vigor. I would use in less important teams for now!

Kashima

Beat Sapporo 2-0. Shibasaki and Higuchi started.
With Sano leaving, manager could tweak things as he finds balance in the side.
Versitile players like Nakama can play multiple spots. Fujii is a speed merchant and YFM have been vulnerable on the counter.
Joint 2nd in the table.

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Kobe (xG 2.2)

Best Clean sheet odds - Hiroshima (54%), Kobe (48%)

Best Stack - Kobe

Kobe are playing bottom side Sapporo and unsurprisingly have the most favourable odds for a win and clean sheet.

Hiroshima have good clean sheet odds against Fukuoka. Though this is a decent fixture, Hiroshima have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals.

YFM are in crisis and have lost 4 in a row and conceeded two bad goals midweek against J2 opposition. Pressure is mounting on Harry Kewells job and players have spoken out about being unclear what the tactics are. In general, I would avoid them in any major team for now.

Nagoya are also in poor form and I like Kashiwas chances for a clean sheet here too.